A portion of the US 10yr yield curve against the 5yr inverted. I am trying to confirm whether the more classic 10yr – 2yr has also inverted, according to my data we are still 16 basis points away but I think we may have dipped into negative territory intraday.
If I can think ahead about what this might be telling us is that the Fed may go hard this year with its rate hikes but will actually be cutting again next year to pull the economy out of recession. So my views on inflation are that we will probably plateau sometime next year and then possibly accelerate thereafter. I am still not discounting a stagflation scenario which is still my first bet. I think a reckless QE program will lead to such civil unrest as people feel the effects of the cost of living increase from current QE mistakes that is might not be socially accepted. If QE happens again then hyper inflation is well on the cards. Just putting into words some thoughts.
Fantastic Interview Exchange by 2 Big Swinging Dicks
I urge you all to read this “interview” exchange by a guy who thinks highly of himself with someone who is a legend in the hedge fund industry.
Just a quick update after you have read the above. Daniel Loeb said he is embarrassed by this exchange. Also in case you are wondering, I had never head of Alan Lewis, and I still have never heard of Alan Lewis.