3 Feb 2022

Dr Philip Lowe believes in Goldilocks’ fairy tales, and I am irritated, more in Money Complex.

Feeling a little testy this morning, I have been going to bed quite late and this little princess has started waking me up at 5am every morning wanting to cuddle. Who can resist those eyes.

MarketWatch

The moves on the top and bottom of my watch list are damn big. Added some more to my SP500 short, thankfully my Bitcoin short is funding my “habit”.

Market Complex

Ok Dr Philip Lowe thinks the market has overdone the sell off in the bond market. He feels America, Canada, UK are all very different to Australia and that he is not so concerned about inflation as he sees this as transitory and more pandemic cost push related. He admitted to all RBA’s misjudgements through 2021 and essentially disclaimed everything he said yesterday as he said things were so uncertain. He confessed to being surprised by the strength of the economy and said if inflation is more persistent he will increase rates sooner. Essentially he was describing a Goldilocks economy not too hot not too cold.

You may wonder why is this all so important, the simple answer is that 97% of the move in the US markets is correlated with the Feds balance sheet growth. Understanding monetary policy and its impact is a big deal for equity markets.

If I can share a little bit of shadow projection. Lowe’s views were exactly mine late last year, and I somehow have bought into the inflation narrative with the prevailing data prints showing inflation for example 7% in the US and the inflation zeitgeist and now I am having second thoughts.

As you know with me I am always challenging my thinking and I find myself asking am I dumping so hard on Dr Lowe because I actually deep down share his views. I actually don’t know so will need to ponder further and reconcile why I am so triggered. It could be because he is continuing to inflate the housing bubble.

Random Thoughts

You really have to love The Donald. He is so predictable even more so than my dogs, 5am wakeup call. He is out trash talking Jeff Zucker the former president of CNN his arch enemy who has resigned over women issues.

“Jeff Zucker, a world class sleazebag who has headed ratings and real-news challenged CNN for far too long, has been terminated for numerous reasons, but predominantly because CNN has lost its way with viewers and everybody else,” said Trump.

Sorry folks I know you are going to hate me for it but the Orange Man is the only guy who can handle Putin and Jinping and Rocket man. You need a certain amount of crazy to deal with those guys. He is a childish, vindictive buffoon but I think he is far smarter and incredibly “in-touch” with Joe public (not the Biden variety) than most people give him credit for.

I think it is time to MAGA.

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