29 Oct 2021

The Australian Financial Review just released Australia’s 100 richest Millennials List which tops $41.3 billion, another record.

As a 50yr old starting a new business I can only look on with amazement at the staggering wealth that has been created by people so young, and dare I say it so inexperienced. A honest comment by Kain Warwick founder of crypto Synthetix with an estimated wealth in excess of $870 million summed up how it is for some lucky ones. “For a lot of people who have accidentally made millions  out of crypto, timing the market was literally it”. There is a lot to unpack in this story, hopefully I will cover some of it in my weekend letter.

This is not normal behaviour even for Bitcoin. In the space of a week we have witnessed 2 flash crashes. I am not sure if todays can be classified as a flash crash but a 7.5% drop in seconds then followed by a 10% up move is flashy in my book.

I think Christmas is coming early in the US markets. We are now into the seasonal bull phase but my golly it is coming fast. To me the market is about to finish off an Elliott Wave 5th wave. I show below Elliott Wave counter Daneric’s latest count. I am expecting some more short term pain as a bear but I think we are close and timing it is impossible so if you are looking to ride a big wave down then it is time to start positioning. Btw put purchases dropped even more so the market is now extremely one sided, this is dangerous.

You ever heard of London based Alister Hibbert? Don’t worry neither had I.

He’s the money manager whose hedge fund has enriched the firm, its clients and himself with a near 370 per cent gain over the past decade. Hibbert’s name is rarely mentioned within the walls of the world’s largest asset management firm, and many employees don’t even know who he is. That’s even after his fund single-handedly earned almost half of BlackRock’s record performance fees last year, according to Bloomberg calculations.

More than half a dozen investors and people who know him say London-based Hibbert, 51, has often been the firm’s highest paid employee globally. Last year alone, he earned a nine-figure sum more than triple the size of CEO Larry Fink’s $US30 million ($39.8 million) payout, according to Bloomberg estimates and the people, who asked not to be identified because the details are private.

As someone in the investment trading game its good to know one can still make a buck in the old school assets game. For a moment I thought the crypto guys are making all the money.

The Treasury yield curve inverted between 20 and 30 years on Thursday for the first time since the U.S. government reintroduced a two-decade maturity in 2020. Two-year rates fell below 0.5% after a torrid two day increase.

The above chart blows me away. You can see that household allocations in equities is at an all time high. This is even bigger mania than the “dot.com” era. I wonder what they will call this era, the “bot.com”.

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