29 Dec 2021

This is a chart of New South Wales the largest state in Australia where I live. We have just shot past 11,000 daily cases. My wife asked me an interesting question last night. She said which December do I prefer, last Dec 2020 where we had almost zero cases in Australia but there was also close to zero international travel or this year Dec 2021 with Covid-19 rampant? [ignore my analysis if you are not into thinking too much at the end of the year]

Last year was magical to be honest but that is me speaking selfishly as my family was together unaffected by isolation restrictions and we were enjoying summer holidays without the need to be vigilant to the lurking virus.

Let me share a perspective that I think we are experiencing right now. It feels like the end game, not as in the end of the world but as in the end of the virus causing havoc.

Above is a chart of the daily cases of Covid around the world. We are starting a new wave bigger than previous waves. This is naturally a source of concern especially if the Omicron strain is more harmful than previous strains. I am no epidemiologist but from what I am reading it is highly contagious but not nearly as harmful. This is naturally a concern because more infections can still overwhelm hospitals and I am witnessing how the testing in Australia has buckled under the strain. People are waiting up to 7 days for results.

When I look at a linear chart of the total cases its easy to panic further as it seems we are on this rapid steep trend to infinity. However there is a silver lining to this dramatic picture when you apply logarithmic scale to the chart.

The logarithmic scale of the chart is what gives me some hope that we are approaching something of the end game.

If you into math the definition of logarithm is probably more complex than most mathematics 99% of the population ever encounter.

My point here is that within nature the logarithm tends to express itself by bringing understanding to complexity and chaos. Our natural psychological tendencies are able to process the concept of logarithm better than we realise, it is for this reason that I am not too alarmed by the increase in cases off the ever larger base one uses in logarithmic calculations. We can also draw comfort that as more people are infected the base which is finite is running out of hosts.

On a separate note, Bitcoin and the Crypto market are experiencing some end of year profit taking. It will be interesting to see where the market goes for the next few days into the New Year weekend.

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