As someone born and bread in South Africa any news about my birthplace draws my attention. It feels like I only see bad news about South Africa these days. I still have a lot of family and friends there. Lately they have been battling rolling electricity “black outs” which is nothing new, but more difficult to deal with is the lack of water to keep ones house plumbing working. Crime is out of control and employment is amongst the highest in the world and despite a corrupt government you have a stock market at all time highs – go figure.
To try make a little more sense of the stock market highs I think one has to look at the performance using US Dollars as the base currency. When doing this things look a little less impressive. We see 5 major highs since 2008 and note that in USD terms South Africa has done very little since the global financial crisis in dollar terms.
Sweden’s first female prime minister resigned on Wednesday after only 12hrs in the top job. That has to be a record in more ways than one. Not sure why I included that factoid but I like to keep an eye on whats going on and sometimes these pieces help one decipher what is going on in society beneath the surface.
I have been subscribing to on-chain crypto analysis (Glassnode) for more than a year; you really need to invest serious brain energy to understand all the mechanics. One metric I find interesting is the percent supply in profit, this metric helps me understand why the early maximalists are so rich and full of sh**.
When you see 85% of supply in profit at $57k it means that 15% of the supply bought their Bitcoin for more than $57k. You can tell from this that most people who own Bitcoin are sitting on profits as they bought at lower levels. It seems a drop below 85% is a zone that leads to selling.
We are currently seeing a rally in Bitcoin with a 3% rally to 59k. There is a new metric Glassnode calls the Market Realised Gradient. Negative Delta Gradient as we have now is when momentum is to the downside as capital flows cannot support the price creating bearish divergence. It will be interesting to keep an eye on this metric.
This next chart really needs no explanation. We are truly living through a technology epoch. The Dotcom era was the start but I am reading incredible things about quantum computing. My guess is that the progress in quantum entanglement theories (which I do not understand) are starting to allow quantum computers to come more into mainstream and with the ability to use subatomic physics to provide much greater computing power than classical binary computers the future is incredibly bright. I see myself as a technology progressive but I remain steadfast that morals and ethics are constant and therefore I am a conservative with these values and will continue to pound my chest that consumer societies that indulge more than they are productive will be the cause of a societal pain.
In other words the force of good and evil are roughly equal. Therefore if there are incredible opportunities coming from Tech something in the world will need to balance this positive force.
Some Thanksgiving Useless date for those celebrating to end on a lighter note than my previous point of boom bust.