16 March 2022

FRA-OIS is an indicator of interbank funding stress (and money market risk). It has exploded recently.

I have been writing about the nickel market $8 billion margin call. I am afraid this is just the beginning. I think we are going to witness margin call after margin call in the near to medium term future. Russia is on the verge of defaulting on over $200 billion of government or state owned company debt. The Russian’s are saying they will pay their dollar interest payments in ruble.

There are also rumours that a major trading house Trafigura (started by Marc Rich from Glencore fame) is in a bit of a cash jam. Remember this name it might be another canary in the coal mine.

Rumours are that 2 CCP (counterparty clearing houses) are scrambling for cash I think the oil and wild commodity moves are causing problems that are likely to become part of the mainstream news in the name of margin calls and bankruptcies. From $140 oil to now below $100 in a week. Watch this space!

Brent Oil

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