12 April 2022

It has been a while, I am working on some corporate activity that is unfortunately prohibiting me from writing at the moment. I just want to make a small comment based on last nights action.

It seems like the bond market is truly having its say. The equity market will be playing follow the leader on this one in my opinion.

Take a look at the 30yr bond yield in the US it is breaking out from a decades long down trend.

You can look at it another way the 20yr government bond etf TLT is getting smashed with daily moves more than the stock market.

You can also take a look at the influence margin debt has on the SP500. There is a clear lag between the effects but they are quite noticeable and one thing you can see for sure is that margin debt has fallen off a cliff.

Here is an incredible chart showing inflation over the past 250yrs on a rolling 20yr average. I am not sure I know exactly what to make from it.

Finally while everyone was talking yield curve inversion we dipped and with the selloff of the long end of the curve the inversion has reversed again. Don’t be fooled with short term data. I still fancy a recession.

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